It’s official: In 50 years time Israel won’t work
It’s official: we’re screwed.
In an exclusive story released today in Hebrew, Israel Radio published a report compiled by the Central Bureau of Statistics which posits interesting forecasts of Israel’s population makeup in 50 years time [the year 2059].
The research was commissioned by the Treasury’s Budget Department.
For the first time ever, according to Israel Radio, the CBS has related to, and forecast, the ultra-Orthodox population sector as a separate entity within the Israeli population.
The results are expected, but nonetheless astounding [and alarming].
According to the CBS report, in the year 2059 there will be some 16 million souls living in Israel.
The non ultra-Orthodox population will grow by almost 50% to 8 million people. These secular, and national religious people now make up 70% of the Israeli population, but will drop to 50% in 50 years time. That means only half the country’s adults will serve in the army and join the workforce.
Israel’s Arab population will grow by 135% to reach 3.5 million people. This sector currently makes up 20% of Israeli sociey, and is expected to grow to 25% by the year 2059.
The ultra-Orthodox population will grow by 580% to reach 5 million people. The ultra-Orthodox currently make up 10% of Israeli society, and according to the CBS report, is expected to rise to over 30%. Why this last statistic is alarming, to me anyway, is the fact that this sector of the population, by and large, does not work, and does not teach its children any of the core subjects that will make them employable in the future. This places an increasingly heavy burden on the taxpaying secular middle class, which is shrinking and will find this burden increasingly untenable. The resources of the government are going to be increasingly shifted towards maintaining this sector, providing it with state subsidies, as well as subsidized housing. This sector also does not serve in the army – placing an increasing burden on the country’s armed forces.
With these kinds of numbers though, the ultra-Orthodox population should have enough electoral stregth to thwart any attempt at changing the status quo, i.e. forcing the haredim to work, teach core subjects, and serve in the army. Furthermore, as we have increasingly witnessed, the ultra-Orthodox community is imposing ever stricter restrictions on women in society. The sector is increasingly brushing up against Israeli secular society and the resulting clashes are becoming more and more ugly.
One of the immediate conclusions of the CBS report is that there is an immediate need for changes to the country’s deep structural imbalances and flaws. The change needs to occur on two levels:
1. The ultra-Orthodox leadership, as well as its rank-and-file must be convinced that their situation and continued dependency on state subsidies is untenable, and they must be given sticks and carrots to get into the employment market.
2. The system of government needs to be changed before the ultra-Orthodox, by their sheer number of voters, make it impossible to change the system of government to a more equitable disposition.
My sense is that unless this problem is addressed soon, and the imbalance corrected, Israel will simply become ungovernable.
Incidentally, all this doesn’t factor in the 3.5 million Palestinians living in the West Bank, and who may eventually be counted into Israeli population statistics as a two-state solution is looking increasingly unlikely.
For a deeper understanding of the issue and possible solutions, read Will Work For Prayer
With all due respect, your forecasts are, well, ridiculous. As the ultra orthodox population in Israel has grown this sector’s life in Israel has also changed radically. MANY more hareidim are working and training to work. There are hareidim in the army. Along with population growth has come investment in the infrastructure and ensuring it can work. The changes are slow… as are shifts in demographics. There is no way to say that population distribution is forecasted to change while all sociological factors will simply stagnate. It is an incredibly skewed way to examine the issues and your predictions are thus nothing more than “convenient” rather than intellectually honest. Israel is addressing all of the issues that come from the burdens of certain populations as well as the changes in demographics. To suppose that this one factor will stay the same and nothing else will change is to discredit the advances made in Israel thus far. I am not claiming that there aren’t problems. I only think your pessimism couched in “data” is unwarranted.
Fair comment. I hope you are right but I do not share your optimism.
There are a few important ratings missing:
1. The amount of people becoming ultra-orthodox (hozrim be tshuva), and the amount of ultra-orthodox leaving the religious way, thus becoming atheists/secular, all per year.
2. The amount of secularists/non-religious citizens that leave the country and never return, all per year.
I still think that due to the situation nowadays, this forecast has high probability of happening. Israel should remove religion from it’s political and judicial table, and fast.
Olya,
For Israel to remove religion from it’s judicial and especially political table means leaving the one defining notion of the jewish state. (Mind you, I wouldn’t mind that one bit, since I’m a true and utter atheist and not an Israeli citizen.) This seriously undermines any legitimacy of Israel as a state, which was disputed by it’s neighbours anyway.
The plus side to it might be the end of almost 60 years of conflict…
So do you think it’s realistic to hope that religion will leave the political theatre?
I’m also an atheist, but I do live here, and I see the impact religion has on everyday life here. Either way Israel would no longer be a Jewish state.
I’m not saying that the Jewish people have a religious right to this little peace of land, but neither did the Americans have any right to come and conquer it from the natives. Every major country was built on the ruins of the previous land, and while the Jews (who were secular and non-religious) came here and built it from scratch, the so calls Palestinians, who just lived here and did nothing to promote the area, only started calling out that this is their land while the Jews were already in process of making this land their home.
So in my opinion – Israel should become a non religious state, with both nations- the Jewish and the Palestinians in it.
But as much as I want it this way, and lots like me, it will never happen because of the following reasons:
1) The ultra-orthodox community has representatives in the parliament, and a lot of the other parliament members are somewhat religious.
2) The Palestinians don’t want a 2-nation country, they want (or at least their leaders and the leaders of Radical Islam organisations) Israel off the world map.
So it’s either staying the way we are and watch Israel fall to pieces as a Jewish religious state, or make it a non religious state for all it’s citizens. I’d still go for the 2nd option.
I thought that all people had to serve in the military. On what basis do the religious not serve. Extreme religious beliefs are the down fall of every country. Just look at the arab countries whose contribution to science, justice, sufferage and accomplishments are the lowest in the world. Israel, surrounded by enemies, should start enforcing universal military service.
see: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/150505#.TuTfr2BSSP9
excerpt: “According to Israel’s Interior Minister the last decade has seen the Jewish birth rate in Israel rise by nearly 20 percent. Muslim and Christian birth rates over the last decade have fallen by 5 percent and 10 percent, respectively.”
It seems that the demographic fear mongering so popular among journalists (and bloggers like yourself), academics and left wing secular Israelis, painting the Arabs and/or Haredim as an inevitable “problem” is just groundless, and counter-productive.
Your idea of removing any religious vestige from the political and judiciary arenas is a moot point, it has already been thoroughly stripped of any religious connection years ago, and we can all see how selective and perverted a Democracy the Left has given us in the political arena, media, & judiciary. The arrogance of Aharon Barak (his ‘mini-me’ side-kick Benitsch), and his judicial activism has left a large segment of the Israeli population disgusted and distrustful of your enlightened secular intellectuals. No thank you.
I think Israel and Israelis will be just fine without your pessimism and prejudice toward Haredim (who are a very diverse group, and not as homogenous and monolithic as you seem to think, BTW I am National Religious and not Haredi).
My idea of removing religious vestige from the political and judiciary arenas comes from me being an atheist, not because of my political views, which are more right-winged than left.
A “right wing” atheist? Isn’t that an oxymoron. Certainly in the US.
Wait what? You are missing the point and the article, that you quote, has little to do with the statements made in this blog.
The only really interesting paragraph in your article is:
” Israeli Arabs tend to have large families, but this has changed along with the sector’s economic elevation into the middle class. A growing number of religious Jews, meanwhile, has perpetuated higher Jewish fertility.
Analysts note the long-term implication of such a trend is an overwhelmingly Jewish future in Israel as the decades progress. ”
this actually supports the statement that Haredim (and other orthodox regilious jewish), as a group, will grow faster than secular jews. The thing is that numerically the jews will endure, but that the economy will fail to support the fact that 50% of the possible workforce isn’t obliged to work for their living. So there need to be changes in the way haredim are treated. No extra money for them, no exemption from working life, no exemption from military service. It is needed to ensure Israel’s future.
Strangely enough it seems you want to make ad hominem remarks to left wing or progressive voices without actually addressing the points made.
I agree with this comment. The link from the Israel National News has nothing to do with the story at hand and shows the commenter misunderstood. There is nowhere on earth where the ultra-Orthodox do not work except in Israel. It’s time they started paying their own way.
Amir Mizroch’s demographic concerns are self-contradictory. On the one hand, their is the concern about the growth of the haredi population, on the other hand, there is the concern about the proportion of Jews in Israel. Yet were it not for the rapidly growing haredi population, the Jewish share would be far smaller down the road. Work and military service are not equally shared by the population, but nor is having babies.
http://www.jct.ac.il/eng/index.php Please see this link to HAREIDI job training. Many Hareidi families have only bread winner, but so do many american families, and no one is excoriating them for not “paying their way”. Additionally, who is paying all of the taxes in Bnei Barak? Hilonim? I don’t think so!
Fantastic, it’s a start, but as long as the state of Israel has policies aimed at financial support of certain groups with no other reason than their beliefs, or more accurately the severity of their beliefs, there will be a sizeable part of the group using those social premiums, without lifting a finger.
I applaud Haredim going to work voluntarily, but do they also relinquish the money given by the state?
In the long haul the current policy cannot be maintained…
It’s like the government pensions in my country. the starting age of 65 was calculated on a life expectancy of 70. Nowadays the life expectancy is 86 on average and therefore 65 isn’t a realistic date anymore… It has to go up, and it will and does go up. Israel should do the same. The policies made somewhere just past the middle of the century should be revised to accomodate the current and future situation.
What the article fails to address is that about 10% (2010 stats) of the ultra orthodox give up that life style for less strict forms of Jewish life. That number would reduce the overall black hats by a substantial amount. There is also the question of government support of people who “study” and get some sort of stipend from the authorities to continue religious “study”. If the government lowers the amount or even cuts it off, these folks will have to get gainful employment.
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If I were an israeli I would consider it an abhomination that haredim are paid by the state to study the Torah (and exempted from military service, too).
It’s about time they are made to do something useful or made to starve.
Then if they could even go so far as to reconsider their outfit and hair style, it’d be even better.
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In a country as tiny as Israel ,sixteen million people, irrespective of demographics, is as Ehrlich were agree a ‘population bomb’ in itself.